Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Irrational Markets

Was reading the economist when I came across this line. Pretty good:
"Statistics are like bikinis - what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."

On another note altogether, somethings been really puzzling me. Its the irrationality of the markets.

Example A.
The US releases data showing that the number of new home sales have dropped dramatically and unexpectedly, pointing towards a recession.
Logically, the markets should drop on these news.
In reality, this data that points towards recession increases the possibility that the Fed may cut its overnight lending rate, and thus the markets actually went up. WTF?

Example B.
Soc Gen discovers 4.9bln of losses made by a rogue trader, and discloses this information on January 23. Stock price drops 4.3%. Makes sense it dropped. What doesn't make sense is that they have only a 39bln market cap - that 4.3% loss is just 1.6bln, or about 1/3rd of the loss from the trader. In fact, now its almost back to its price on Jan 18th. The reason, it seems, is because Soc Gen is now being viewed as a likely takeover target, which boosts the share price. Logical conclusion from this is that their shareholders haven't lost a single cent from the rogue trader. Even losses to such a huge scale doesn't seem to matter - in fact, the larger the loss, the more likely its going to be taken over, and therefore the more likely the share price would go higher. Makes sense to you? Well it doesn't make sense to me.