Doing nothing

Christmas hols 2008.

Stayed at home. Doing nothing.

The tube was down. Shops were closed. Restaurants were shut. The gym was... I've run out of synonyms... There wasn't really anything I could do.

I watched 3 seasons of "How I met your mother", 2 seasons of "Battlestar Galactica" and one season of "Californication"... and only because I've already watched Heroes, House MD and Grey's Anatomy.

It got me thinking that I'm not such an introvert as I thought I was. I like hanging out with friends. I like going out (tho i hate crowds).

I hate to admit it, but more than 2 days alone doing nothing is lonely...

End of year "performance review"

Last year I made some new year resolutions... time to reflect on my performance...

• Get in touch with about 50% of my aquaintences. A superpoke doesn't count. At least a wall post.

Well... I think I massed-superpoked once... but I don't believe I did get in touch with at least 50% of my aquaintences... Maybe next time I should set some more realistic goals.

• Be proactive and productive in my work. So far I've been passive in doing assigned jobs. But any well educated person can do that. I need to do more.

Nope as well... the past year was the most unmotivated part of my working career. Too much distraction about job losses and all that crap. No motivation in doing my best. Sigh...

• Be a do-er in every aspect of my life. Too many times I have toyed with ideas or felt like doing something (such as organising a meeting with friends) but I simply procrastinated or felt it was too troublesome and then gave up the idea. I realise that some ideas cannot be pursued, but I will try harder not to hesitate and just do it

What the hell was I thinking? Erm well, at least I'm starting to hit the gym... that's considered doing something right?

• Play less wow. *glurp*

Yes! Yes! Yes! Finally something I achieved. I've given up wow. And find myself with so much more time :).

• Care more about the other people around me. With the exception of my gf, I forget birthdays, I don't buy presents, I don't even pay attention on who's going away on holidays and when. To be honest I'm really surprised I have some amazing friends.

Slowly, I'm trying. I know who's on holidays this christmas. And I do make an effort to remember birthdays... I do try - tho I still forget sometimes... or most of the time...

• Visit Paris. So many years in London and I've never been to Paris. I'm ashamed.

Er no.. haven't been to Paris yet. No excuses...

So, in the span of the year, I seem to have lost track of what I wanted to achieve. Maybe this year I'll set even less ambitious targets...

Random funny conversation

A - "You won't want anything from a man..."

B - "What I want from a man? His car, his money and his women."

A - "copy-paste"

B - "can you leave out 'his women'?"

A - "I'll leave out 'his car' and 'his money', so she wont think you're materialistic"

B - "thanks dude, appreciated..."

Job cuts... part 4

Last monday, I took a half day off. Just to take time off, you know... cus there was just too many layoffs and the morale was bad, and there wasn't really much to do in the office and I still had some excess holidays to spend...

I came home at 1plus. I got a message on my mobile phone, "Where are you man?? Are you alright? Dont be leaving your desk like that man..."

Hahaha. I had to reply "yeah i'm fine, just taking some off days."

Two hours later i got another message from someone else, "Are you alright?"

Gosh... these layoffs are really making everyone paranoid eh. I found myself apologising to like 10 people who were worried that I got cut...

So for the record, pple, I'm still employed. Barely, still hanging on...

Job cuts... part 3

I'm still employed. Just got back from dinner with a broker. A little bit too much to drink.

But I'm fine. Relax. Breathe...

There might still be cuts.. when I'm fired dont worry, u'll be first to know since I'll have much time to blog...

Job cuts... part 2

Surprise!!!

I thought (and so did many others) the cuts would come Dec 15. It came early.

Today, a few colleagues (some of them I do count as reasonably close friends) were fired. All of them from sales and structuring. Quite a handful of them.

Its a sad day.

How it happens:
- Usually happens in the morning.
- You don't see the managers.
- Person gets a call to go to a meeting room.
- Person gets into room, sees manager together with unknown third person, from HR.
- Unknown third person delivers the news.
- He tells you that a) nothing has changed - you're still being employed b) you have been made "at risk of redundancy" c) hands you a package of sorts explaining your redundancy package and other employment opportunities d) mentions that you have a month to look for another opportunity within the bank and finally e) tells you that your login will be deactivated and "suggests" that you collect your personal items, leave your pass, and that you'll be "escorted" out of the building.
- meanwhile manager's boss summons your team to a room and delivers the news.
all very short and sweet.

Some exceptions. Today, somehow, they were more humane. They allowed those cut to come back to the floor and say their goodbyes. Freakin upsetting I tell you... what the hell do you say to a colleague, a friend, that has been let go?

I recall this morning....

"Where's Mika?" I ask, in a chatroom.

"In a meeting probably", another friend answered.

Half an hour later, he says, "now I'm worried for Mika."

A few moments later, Mika comes to me, with his jacket on, with very sombre, sad eyes. I look at him, raise my eyebrow in a quizzical look.

He nods.

I don't know what to say! "Well... lets meet up for coffee sometime... Take care..."

"Yes. Or maybe football. Or maybe some other bank, sometime, somewhere..."

I patted his arm and repeated, "take care, all the best", then turned away and pretended to work. I could see tears welling up in his eyes and I am ashamed to admit tears were welling up in mine as well. I couldn't say anything anymore and I didn't want to look at him or listen to what he had to say. He squeezed my arm, then took off, leaving me struggling to contain my emotion in the fckn "my d*ck is bigger than yours" trading floor.

Today the sales and structuring teams were cut. Rumours are that the cuts for trading will happen tomorrow. If you don't see a post from me tomorrow, don't fret, most likely I'm just celebrating my continuing employment.

Fingers crossed...

Job cuts...

So the news is out.. there will be another round of job cuts in the next two weeks. 5000 people to be cut in the division, 1000 from the UK. Already many of my colleagues in HK have been "let go". Everyone is getting paranoid. My mum called to check if I'm ok. She said she'll pray for me at the temple. I think if I get cut, I'll just go home. The job market is so bad that it will probably take me like half a year to get any decent position anywhere...

Not to worry tho... I've already suffered a 30% paycut due to the GBPSGD fx rate... and a 30% cut in my investments... losing a job is no biggie.. pff not like I'll be getting a huge bonus this year, if i'm getting any at all.

Quitting wow - dinner

Did I say I used to cook for 4 days (dinner on sun, monday, tue, wed) just because I don't have time to cook when I rush back from work to play wow?

Well nothing's changed. I still cook for 4 days...

Its just more convenient!

Mid life crisis?

I'm 28 now, just fyi... and I think I'm suffering a mid life crisis of sorts...
email excerpts from my friends in London (who shall remain anonymous)

Friend A:

Had a hectic week in singapore. was at my cousin's wedding, caught up with alot of friends while in singapore and for the first time in my life did i actually not want to board the plane back to london....like seriously seriously....i am considering accelerating my move back to .sg actually. been doing alot of internal soul searching and don't even know anymore why I am staying on in london...

major homesick blues.....if i kena cut in the next round of redundancies i might just pack up and go....i think i am having a mid life crisis

Me:

hehehehehehe i also suffering a little bit of a mid life crisis of sorts. i suppose its a combination of factors:
1 - the gbp drop.. working in london doesn't look so attractive anymore
2 - the economy and the financial crisis - opens you up a little and you start wondering if there's more to life than just work and money
3 - age.. well for me at least since my birthday just passed, i start feeling the age creeping up and wondering if i've really lived the life I want to live, and whether i should live it any differently now.

not really homesick ( i don't miss singapore all that much) but just generally feeling sian... feeling the same way as xp, if kena cut, then just pack and go...

also have been adjusting my own expectations a bit.. got this GQ insert on london's best restaurants... waah wah wah... but then started wondering how often can go and eat out at these restaurants and spend about 70quid a head... bleah..


Friend B:

i think this 'mid life crisis' thing is usually the catalyst for people taking a career break / gap year or finding work that they really enjoyed. Some time back I was discussing with a colleague of mine... most (not all) people in the office seem to be smart and capable, but there way fewer people over 30 in the bank than under 30 - obviously there is a pyramid of hierachy where its narrower at the top, but the question which begs to be answered is --- how many people decide enough banking is enough by the time they reach 30 and leave anyway? We thought the answer was : lots.

The environment we work in is probably not your average job - but then no average job would satisfy our personality traits (high achieving / ambitious / always planning the next career step) so it would only makes sense to us to:
a) work hard in an environment that you totally enjoy yourself - this means lower pay, higher job satisfaction, better social life
b) work hard in a bearable environment, rewarded by the holidays / material things that you can look forward to.

I think most of us start off at b) and transition to a) as we grow older. and that is because when we just graduated, money was hard to come by - so all else seemed secondary... now... you can actually eat a £70 meal which you could never dream off when you were a student. so once the material wealth box is ticked, its time to move on to other things i guess... dimishing marginal returns.

------------

All of these makes a lot of sense... Lets just see if I can stick it through...

A boring day ahead...

The initial plan was for my to fly back to London friday 11.30pm, so I would bring my luggage to the office, and head straight to the airport immediately after work. I thought that would be a little bit too tiring, so I emailed the clerk.

"Is it possible for me to fly out sat instead of friday?"

A simple question - a bit too simple perhaps, for the clerk replied, a little too helpfully perhaps... "I've changed your flight to sat, same time as your friday flight, and also changed your cab pickup time"

I was a little embarrassed to ask her to change the flight again... so I left it at that. But now I've checked out from the hotel, with nothing to do... sitting at Starbucks leeching off their free wireless access.

Five weeks in HK is a pretty long time - but yet it passed by so quickly. Five weeks ago, I hadn't wanted to come... but now that my time in HK is over I feel a little nostalgic leaving.

Perhaps its the issue of getting attached to a place as people tend to do. After five weeks I realised I can adapt and live here in HK quite well. I had a haircut, I had bought toiletries, I know where the good food places are, I now even know the karaoke places! There is still so much to explore. I've gotten to know a few friends, nice people whom I'd like to know better - but can't because my time has come to an end. Its sad.

Perhaps its because I know such trips to HK will not come again, not at least for another 2 years. The recent financial turmoil has left my bank and the general industry in such a weak shape that business travel will be curtailed. Besides, they have already recruited two new guys in HK - so they probably wont need me anymore to cover.

Yesterday, after work, I went with a few of my colleagues to dinner, followed by karaoke. At 2am in the morning, when we left the karaoke place, I bided bye to them, "I don't know when we'll meet again..." It was sad to part, so we decided instead to go for supper... But finally it got too late and we parted. "Keep in touch", I said... for I don't really know how to say goodbye to friends that you'll probably never meet again.

===

I've also decided to quit wow (World of Warcraft). I picked up the game about 2 years back when a housemate gave me the game and we played it together. It was a good game, and thru it I've met friends (real-life friends, not in-game friends) in London and we hang out (or have steamboat/ themed dinner at-home parties) like 2 times a month.

But I've spent too much time on the game. I know that. Back then, I would rush home by 8.30pm because thats when a planned "raid" (25 players gathering to complete an in-game event) starts. Because time is usually very tight, I would cook dinner on Sunday for four days. I stopped reading, surfing the internet, lazing around the home... basically having less free time. But I enjoyed it.

I always had the intention to quit wow. But never found the impetus. But now is as good a time as any since a) a few of my friends who have played have also quit; b) my interest in wow has dropped quite a lot since recent changes in the game; c) these five weeks away from wow has taught me that I don't need it one bit.

===

The starbucks is getting quite crowded. People are standing around looking for a spot to sit! But I'm not leaving!!! No! what am I going to do if I get up? Where am I going to go?

===

I went to Prive, apparently a very popular, members only club last friday with a colleague. I stayed for only 2hrs tho... The colleague knew a friend who was a member, and his friend brought us and several of his friends in. All of them (all singaporeans btw) were there with only one purpose - to go on the prowl for girls. Was wierd. Never experienced joining a group of guys on the prowl before.

===

mm.. i need to go to the toilet. I think I finally will have to give up my starbucks seat to someone else. Will rant another time...

Fkn markets

I fkn want to vent my anger on the fckn markets.. fck!

Nikkei went down by 10% in one fkn day! Followed by the eurostoxx! And worst of all the fckn crap GBP is going down the fckn drain. WTF its like 2.33 vs the SGD?? When I first started working in London it was like 2.9. One month ago it was at 2.6.. and now its at fckn 2.33??? FCK!

I'm so fckn sick of the fckn markets now. How far can it drop, really? How far can the GBP drop, really? How low can it get before the whole world starts farming sweet potatoes or corn?

Sigh. I'm just going to sleep and hopefully when I wake up, its all going to be a bad dream.

The financial crisis from my point of view

More for my reference in future than anything else...

Whats the current crisis?
Markets around the world, US, Europe and Asia, has fallen by roughly 20% over the past week and 40% over the past year. Banks are collapsing or being taken over, there is a squeeze on cash, and no bank is willing to lend to each other or to other corporations. Governments all over have been hastily trying to fix the problem by implementing new, uncoordinated measures, resulting in extremely wide market swings.

Why is it so serious?
Obama probably put it best - companies, big or small, are not able to take new loans, to buy a new factory, hire more people, or even pay existing employees. People will start losing their jobs. Unemployment will go up, while the cost of living will remain the same or higher. There will be a drop in consumer spending, resulting in a contraction in the general economy, which will cause more job cuts and ... a vicious cycle ensues...

Why can't we get out of it?
I used to think we can - if the problem was fixed quick enough. Hank Paulson tried to fix it but it wasn't enough. Once investors lose their confidence in banks and in the markets, and tried to withdraw their deposits/positions, the problem just escalates. There was a joke I read about how markets work - funny but very true:
It was nearing winter and the native americans were preparing for it. They heard the weather forecast that it was going to be a cold winter. So they chopped more wood to prepare for it. The following day, the forecast said it was going to be a very cold winter. So they went out and chopped even more wood. The next day the forecast said it was going to be the coldest winter in history, so they went out and chopped even more wood. One guy called the weather station and asked, "How do you know its going to be such a cold winter?". The answer was, "Look at the insane amounts of wood the native americans are gathering!!"
and so thats it... markets start falling, people start selling. Markets drop further. People sell more.

What about market fundamentals?
There was a time when I believed in that. That finance can be explained by maths. pfft. There is no concept of fundamentals. Look to Volkswagen. They reported that their earnings will be crap. Their future is bleak. The economy is heading towards a recession. Automobile companies are hurt bad. BUT while everything around them is falling 40%, Volkswagen has shot up by 400%. Why? The story is a little long, but just to document it... it was because Porsche had owned 35% of the outstanding shares and had options to buy more with banks - but nobody knew how much and when they had to honor those options. Hedge funds had also shorted their stock. When the time came to cover, they had to buy the stock back. That resulted in a short squeeze (short sellers having to buy stock back while there is little stock to go around) resulting in absolutely crazy stock prices that is NOT supported by either the intrinsic value of the company, nor its expected cash flow.

Are the banks safe now?
Pfft. After Lehman fell, all the big banks got into big trouble. At first it was like 5 banks. Then 10.. and then I lost count. The governments have been trying to help, so for now it looks like no more banks are going to fail. Deposits are being guaranteed now, all over the world. So don't fear about your savings and current accounts.

Is my job safe?
No. Even though my bank is partially nationalised, there will definitely be a few rounds of cost cutting measures, which will include job cuts, salary cuts and bonus cuts.

Am I worried?
Past that stage, really. A cut might even be a good thing for me, since I should get a decent severance package and I wont have to suffer in such a bad economy (with low margins and profit) for another year.

Who is to blame?
Yeah believe the press about those scheming greedy bankers who invented these imaginary financial products that nobody understands, then paying themselves a huge paycheck at the expense of innocent consumers.
BUT THATS NOT TRUE.
As I mentioned, a large part of the blame lies with asset bubbles. Especially in China, markets work like this: a stock performs decently. Some smart investors start buying it. As they start buying that stock gains popularity and prominence as a good performer. More people start buying it. And so the stock gains in price. Repeat this for all other stocks in the world, including commodities, like oil. Goldman Sachs analysts predicted oil at 200. People started to believe them, FKING driving up the price of oil. As nearly everyone went bullish on the market, everyone started making money, and there was an excess of cash! And so people started investing more!
Blaming the subprime market, credit default swaps (CDS), or those well paid bankers does prove to be popular, but nobody was complaining when they were making money themselves!

What am I gonna do?
I joke that I'm gonna grow sweet potatoes. After all, that seems like a sensible way to live through even the worst depression. But practically though... I can't, since I don't have a garden. I don't know what else I'm gonna do besides Finance, but lets face it, its never going to be the same game again, not for another five years. No way will I expect fat bonuses anymore. So really, there isn't any more pull factor to remain in finance.

Do I regret working in a bank?
No. Its such a great experience, given the chance I'll do it all over again.

HK trip #4

In changi airport right now, decided to take this short opportunity waiting for a flight back to HK to write this entry. someone's been complaining there's nothing new on my blog. surprised they still read it!!

As usual, I met up with my same ol bunch of close friends. A weekend is pretty too short to meet up with everyone I'd like to... but still it was good. It was a bit tiring rushing around but it was good to have a weekend filled with meeting old friends.

Meanwhile L was in the US scouting for a venue for our wedding. hehe...

And a short story I felt quite strongly about. I arrived in SG friday late night (1am Saturday actually), and I wanted to buy a sim card - so I can make and receive calls more easily. I hadn't planned to come back to SG so I didn't bring my IC, my EZlink card, and my sim card. I was told I could get it from the money changer.

W: I'd like to buy a sim card please.
Girl at Counter: Top up card or sim card?
W: Sim card.
G: new number?
W: Yes.
G: Can I see your ID please.
W: (take out passport>)Here you go.
G: Sorry sir, for Singaporeans, I need to see your NRIC.
W: Why? I left my NRIC overseas. Isn't the passport good enough?
G: Sorry sir, its the regulation.
W: So foreigners can use their passports but Singaporeans cannot?
G: Yes sir. For Singaporeans we need to see your NRIC.
W: But my NRIC number is exactly the same as the passport number
G: Yeah I know sir. But we need your NRIC.
W: Why? The passport IS a valid ID, accepted by goverments worldwide. And its not valid here?
G: Sorry sir, its a singtel regulation.

I was on the verge of going balistic. Seriously, do they have to follow the rule to the letter? WHAT, really, could be the reason they refuse to accept my passport as a valid id? In the end, I went to the money changer at the other end of the airport to try my luck again. Again I was told the passport CANNOT be used as a valid ID. I asked if there are any other forms of ID they'll accept. Driver's License, i'm told. Luckily I had it in my wallet. And then I got the simcard.

But really, logically speaking, WTF can't I use my passport? I cannot use my NRIC in anywhere in the world, except Singapore. And I can use my passport EVERYWHERE in the world... BUT Singapore. AND THE DRIVING LICENSE IS MORE VALID THAN THE PASSPORT???

I was dissapointed, to say the least. In Singtel, for having such a ridiculous rule, in the cashier for having such a narrow one track mind, and in Singapore, for I knew only such a ridiculous rule can still be followed unwaveringly here.

Sim Wong Hoo once wrote about the "U Turn" syndrome in Singapore, i.e., you are not allowed to make a U Turn unless there is a U turn sign (in other parts of the world, you are explicitly allowed to U turn unless there is a "No U-Turn" sign). Perhaps Singtel's regulation wasn't that you can't use your passport if you're singaporean.... They just didn't write that you could....

Actually, writing about this I remember another incident. Our PM came back to SG from an overseas visit and noticed a longer queue in the "Singapore Residents Only" lane versus the "All Passports" lane and was confused. Why, he wondered, would that be the case when Singapore passport holders can also choose the "All Passports" lane? Reason being that some Singaporeans won't risk it unless its explicitly written - "All passports including singaporeans" perhaps.

Enough ranting.. i gotta go. maybe next entry i'll talk about the financial meltdown... since people have been asking me about it and also... i feel like this is gonna be a historic moment. 20-30 years later people will remember about this year as the worst financial disaster in history and I'm smack in the middle of it. Perhaps I really should start documenting day by day recounts, and then I can compile a book and sell it - when i get fired :P.

What if I get used to this?

Just wondering man... I could so get used to this. Living the high life at the Grand Hyatt.

I wake up at 7.30 every morning. Pick one of three sets of newspapers (Financial Times, Herald Tribune or South China Morning Post) that are delivered outside my room every morning. Head downstairs for a hearty 280HKD buffet breakfast, while staff I meet always greets me with a smile. Walk out the building while doormen hold them open for me. Hop into a cab as the friendly doorman who remembers me instructs the cabby to take me to the office. Pay only 15HKD to the cabby for the ride which takes only 5mins.

Work at the office is tough, so lets skip to when I leave at about 9plus.

Take one of the many cabs plying the streets back to the hotel. Hit the gym, lift a few weights, then have dinner at one of the many restaurants that charge really exorbitant prices - but I don't care.

Take a nice hot shower in a huge marble-tiled toilet.

Then finally, rest in the comfy bed for next morning.

---

But what if I get used to this?

Singapore Weekend

Flew back to Singapore for the weekend. Pretty tight schedule - flew on Friday at 8pm. At 5.30pm, excused myself from the office (usually leave at 9pm) and rushed to the airport. Arrived Singapore at about 12midnight.

Next morning, went out with TJ, C, C, FL to Old Airport Road hawker center for a very HEARTY brunch/lunch. Otah, fried kway teow, hokkien prawn mee, wan ton soup, carrot cake, honeydew soya bean milk.. was more filling than a buffet meal!

Then headed to Holland Village essential brew. Quite a cool hangout. We each had a drink, and after that we shared a pot of chinese tea. C kept up the suaning - her excuse was Aggie wasn't around so I had to take her place. bah.

Then we went to botanic gardens cus KL and TJ were going to run. funny eh. i would have joined them too - if I had remembered to bring my clothes! So KL and TJ went to jog while C FL and I took a "leisurely" walk in the hot, humid park to this small cafe. The cafe was air conditioned, thankfully. The cafe had a very holiday chalet feel, which felt really comfortable.

Then I went to gf's place for dinner. yum!

Sunday met TJ FL and KL for lunch. JH came a bit late and we had eaten. But the food was superb again. Singapore is really food paradise - seriously, nothing beats it. Curry chicken mee, katong laksa, ba chor mee pok, claypot rice... mmm.. super good.

Then went shopping and bought 3 shirts from Raoul. Shiok stuff. Then bought 2 pants from Robinsons. I think i'm done with shopping for this year already.

--

Working abroad is tough. Separated from gf, family, friends is the toughest.

Yesterday I recalled I had set very ambitious, very unrealistic goals in the past. Probably still achievable - if I had several strokes of good luck - but more importantly, I realised how much less driven I have become as the years go by. But coming back to SG for the weekend I feel recharged for some reason. Thankful for the friends I have. :)

---

There's this group of mainland Chinese here at the airport with me. Sitting or squatting on the carpet floor in a circle playing cards. A group of aunties and uncles in their 40s or 50s making a lot of noise. Talking so loudly as though they're hard of hearing. Sigh these people probably a part of the reason why westerners have a very poor impression of the Chinese. Wish they will behave more... civilised.

---

I'm now back in HK. Lonely :P

Olympic Torch - email that turned into a rant...

An email exchange between a few friends in London

CA - A malaysian

Anyone interested in seeing the Olympic torch?

http://www.london.gov.uk/torchrelay/london/map.jsp

There are carnival activites planned as well....I think it should be
interesting.

Me - half jokingly

i will go if you provide me with a "FREE TIBET" T-shirt....

R - a Chinese

*cough* excuse me...

SJ - another Chinese

Don't really understand why every single non-Chinese thinks people in Tibet want to be independent. A group of morons kill people, set fire, stole money doesn't necessarily reflect that the majority people in Tibet want to be independent too, I don't think.

There is just no single history book or media will report 100% truth. The history books and media were controlled by each country for ease of their rule of the country or for some other political purposes.

As Chinese, we were taught Tibet is part of China. As foreigners, they were told China invaded Tibet in 1959. But the thing is none of us lived at that time and also happened to be in Tibet, we need to do more research and hear stories from all perspectives to judge the issue more objectively.

Me - Start of rant

I totally agree with you here, that no history book or media will report 100% truth. When America invaded Iraq a lot of people thought it was wrong but obviously the americans didn't think so. The American media didn't help either. Luckily there were other media sources like the arab channel (i forgot what it was called). Nowadays, half the war is about public opinion, and this can be affected by the media, which was why they (the americans) initially invited the press to iraq as well to build on the goodwill of the press. This propaganda effort is of course not just the isolated to the americans... The recent Myanmar/Burma riots come to mind - I saw a picture of the national news actually saying that they were trying to maintain stability and security and all that when they killed dunno how many monks and arrested thousands others. they blanked out all forms of media, eventually even shutting down mobile phones and the internet.

Singapore is also quite bad in media freedom. one of the worst in the world in fact. but from what I hear China is worse.

I don't know if this is true, maybe you can educate me... but China disallows access to the BBC. and to blogs like blogspot.com. it also denies access to youtube, except selected videos. Singapore doesn't do that at least - it may censor and pursue those who posted objectionable stuff within singapore but it has little juristiction otherwise. now, i'm sure you'll agree with me that such drastic censorship rules mean less media freedom which means more room for information manipulation.

So how do we judge what is true if we cannot believe the media and we cannot trust history books? Honestly, I don't know myself. I wish I knew. I read about the Christian crusade in the early ages. they were hailed as heroes etc but obviously thats because what we hear is mostly from the western side. Simarly, I had always thought if the Germans and Japanese had won the world war, they would have swamped the world with their propoganda and skewed history that today we might actually believe that they were a great power who united the world or what not.

so back to the crux of the problem. how do we know what is true, and how do we judge more objectively... following the majority isn't obviously the best option but its probably the least antagonistic one. Its like asking if you were crazy, how would you know you're crazy? - probably if you notice everyone else being very different from you. on the other hand, if everyone was the same as you except this one particular guy, then maybe this guy is crazy... so extrapolating from that, given that "every single non-chinese thinks people in Tibet wants to be independent", maybe its only the chinese that thinks tibet wants to be part of china? and that this could be due to the chinese propoganda?

and finally, in my humble opinion, its really difficult to dispute an invasion on whether it actually happened or not... people could uncover the truth (perhaps scrolls or artifacts or events recorded all over the world) about wars happening in 2000B.C.... what happened in 1959 shouldn't be possibly be disputed.

I draw another example to Iraq... if it was easy fabricate a story that China and invaded Tibet, I'm quite certain the Americans could have planted WMDs in Iraq, thus vindicating their unwarranted invasion.

SJ

I like W's attitude. :) Will not run out of things to argue about next time we catch up.

Irrational Markets

Was reading the economist when I came across this line. Pretty good:
"Statistics are like bikinis - what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."

On another note altogether, somethings been really puzzling me. Its the irrationality of the markets.

Example A.
The US releases data showing that the number of new home sales have dropped dramatically and unexpectedly, pointing towards a recession.
Logically, the markets should drop on these news.
In reality, this data that points towards recession increases the possibility that the Fed may cut its overnight lending rate, and thus the markets actually went up. WTF?

Example B.
Soc Gen discovers 4.9bln of losses made by a rogue trader, and discloses this information on January 23. Stock price drops 4.3%. Makes sense it dropped. What doesn't make sense is that they have only a 39bln market cap - that 4.3% loss is just 1.6bln, or about 1/3rd of the loss from the trader. In fact, now its almost back to its price on Jan 18th. The reason, it seems, is because Soc Gen is now being viewed as a likely takeover target, which boosts the share price. Logical conclusion from this is that their shareholders haven't lost a single cent from the rogue trader. Even losses to such a huge scale doesn't seem to matter - in fact, the larger the loss, the more likely its going to be taken over, and therefore the more likely the share price would go higher. Makes sense to you? Well it doesn't make sense to me.

Random things

Random things to note:
1. Returning to London from SG/HK makes me realise once again how expensive London is. A Marks and Spenser microwave meal in London could pay for 2.5 char siew siew arhp fan with teh ping in HK, or 6 plates of 2 dollar chicken rice in SG. Went for lunch with two colleagues. Just a cheap thai restaurant in the area... came up to 10pounds a person. Cheap is a relative word man. Could pay for more than 4.4 char siew siew arhp fan with teh ping, or 10 bowls of super good wan ton mee.
2. The Bhutto assasination intrigues me. I want to find out who did it, but perhaps I won't find an answer (that I will be happy with)
3. After living abroad for so long, I find SG a little bit stifling. I can go on and on about this, but lets just say I won't be able to find pron dvds or magazines in the stores.
4. Some director at barclaycard got fired for making a stupid racist joke, "... are like muslims, some are good, some are shi'ite". While I think the joke was really silly and made in bad taste, I don't think he should be fired for that. People make racist jokes all the time, and some of them are genuinely funny. Making a racist joke doesn't mean a person is racist. For example, we make dumb blonde jokes all the time but that doesn't mean we hate blondes!