The initial plan was for my to fly back to London friday 11.30pm, so I would bring my luggage to the office, and head straight to the airport immediately after work. I thought that would be a little bit too tiring, so I emailed the clerk.
"Is it possible for me to fly out sat instead of friday?"
A simple question - a bit too simple perhaps, for the clerk replied, a little too helpfully perhaps... "I've changed your flight to sat, same time as your friday flight, and also changed your cab pickup time"
I was a little embarrassed to ask her to change the flight again... so I left it at that. But now I've checked out from the hotel, with nothing to do... sitting at Starbucks leeching off their free wireless access.
Five weeks in HK is a pretty long time - but yet it passed by so quickly. Five weeks ago, I hadn't wanted to come... but now that my time in HK is over I feel a little nostalgic leaving.
Perhaps its the issue of getting attached to a place as people tend to do. After five weeks I realised I can adapt and live here in HK quite well. I had a haircut, I had bought toiletries, I know where the good food places are, I now even know the karaoke places! There is still so much to explore. I've gotten to know a few friends, nice people whom I'd like to know better - but can't because my time has come to an end. Its sad.
Perhaps its because I know such trips to HK will not come again, not at least for another 2 years. The recent financial turmoil has left my bank and the general industry in such a weak shape that business travel will be curtailed. Besides, they have already recruited two new guys in HK - so they probably wont need me anymore to cover.
Yesterday, after work, I went with a few of my colleagues to dinner, followed by karaoke. At 2am in the morning, when we left the karaoke place, I bided bye to them, "I don't know when we'll meet again..." It was sad to part, so we decided instead to go for supper... But finally it got too late and we parted. "Keep in touch", I said... for I don't really know how to say goodbye to friends that you'll probably never meet again.
===
I've also decided to quit wow (World of Warcraft). I picked up the game about 2 years back when a housemate gave me the game and we played it together. It was a good game, and thru it I've met friends (real-life friends, not in-game friends) in London and we hang out (or have steamboat/ themed dinner at-home parties) like 2 times a month.
But I've spent too much time on the game. I know that. Back then, I would rush home by 8.30pm because thats when a planned "raid" (25 players gathering to complete an in-game event) starts. Because time is usually very tight, I would cook dinner on Sunday for four days. I stopped reading, surfing the internet, lazing around the home... basically having less free time. But I enjoyed it.
I always had the intention to quit wow. But never found the impetus. But now is as good a time as any since a) a few of my friends who have played have also quit; b) my interest in wow has dropped quite a lot since recent changes in the game; c) these five weeks away from wow has taught me that I don't need it one bit.
===
The starbucks is getting quite crowded. People are standing around looking for a spot to sit! But I'm not leaving!!! No! what am I going to do if I get up? Where am I going to go?
===
I went to Prive, apparently a very popular, members only club last friday with a colleague. I stayed for only 2hrs tho... The colleague knew a friend who was a member, and his friend brought us and several of his friends in. All of them (all singaporeans btw) were there with only one purpose - to go on the prowl for girls. Was wierd. Never experienced joining a group of guys on the prowl before.
===
mm.. i need to go to the toilet. I think I finally will have to give up my starbucks seat to someone else. Will rant another time...
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
Fkn markets
I fkn want to vent my anger on the fckn markets.. fck!
Nikkei went down by 10% in one fkn day! Followed by the eurostoxx! And worst of all the fckn crap GBP is going down the fckn drain. WTF its like 2.33 vs the SGD?? When I first started working in London it was like 2.9. One month ago it was at 2.6.. and now its at fckn 2.33??? FCK!
I'm so fckn sick of the fckn markets now. How far can it drop, really? How far can the GBP drop, really? How low can it get before the whole world starts farming sweet potatoes or corn?
Sigh. I'm just going to sleep and hopefully when I wake up, its all going to be a bad dream.
Nikkei went down by 10% in one fkn day! Followed by the eurostoxx! And worst of all the fckn crap GBP is going down the fckn drain. WTF its like 2.33 vs the SGD?? When I first started working in London it was like 2.9. One month ago it was at 2.6.. and now its at fckn 2.33??? FCK!
I'm so fckn sick of the fckn markets now. How far can it drop, really? How far can the GBP drop, really? How low can it get before the whole world starts farming sweet potatoes or corn?
Sigh. I'm just going to sleep and hopefully when I wake up, its all going to be a bad dream.
Friday, October 17, 2008
The financial crisis from my point of view
More for my reference in future than anything else...
Whats the current crisis?
Markets around the world, US, Europe and Asia, has fallen by roughly 20% over the past week and 40% over the past year. Banks are collapsing or being taken over, there is a squeeze on cash, and no bank is willing to lend to each other or to other corporations. Governments all over have been hastily trying to fix the problem by implementing new, uncoordinated measures, resulting in extremely wide market swings.
Why is it so serious?
Obama probably put it best - companies, big or small, are not able to take new loans, to buy a new factory, hire more people, or even pay existing employees. People will start losing their jobs. Unemployment will go up, while the cost of living will remain the same or higher. There will be a drop in consumer spending, resulting in a contraction in the general economy, which will cause more job cuts and ... a vicious cycle ensues...
Why can't we get out of it?
I used to think we can - if the problem was fixed quick enough. Hank Paulson tried to fix it but it wasn't enough. Once investors lose their confidence in banks and in the markets, and tried to withdraw their deposits/positions, the problem just escalates. There was a joke I read about how markets work - funny but very true:
It was nearing winter and the native americans were preparing for it. They heard the weather forecast that it was going to be a cold winter. So they chopped more wood to prepare for it. The following day, the forecast said it was going to be a very cold winter. So they went out and chopped even more wood. The next day the forecast said it was going to be the coldest winter in history, so they went out and chopped even more wood. One guy called the weather station and asked, "How do you know its going to be such a cold winter?". The answer was, "Look at the insane amounts of wood the native americans are gathering!!"
and so thats it... markets start falling, people start selling. Markets drop further. People sell more.
What about market fundamentals?
There was a time when I believed in that. That finance can be explained by maths. pfft. There is no concept of fundamentals. Look to Volkswagen. They reported that their earnings will be crap. Their future is bleak. The economy is heading towards a recession. Automobile companies are hurt bad. BUT while everything around them is falling 40%, Volkswagen has shot up by 400%. Why? The story is a little long, but just to document it... it was because Porsche had owned 35% of the outstanding shares and had options to buy more with banks - but nobody knew how much and when they had to honor those options. Hedge funds had also shorted their stock. When the time came to cover, they had to buy the stock back. That resulted in a short squeeze (short sellers having to buy stock back while there is little stock to go around) resulting in absolutely crazy stock prices that is NOT supported by either the intrinsic value of the company, nor its expected cash flow.
Are the banks safe now?
Pfft. After Lehman fell, all the big banks got into big trouble. At first it was like 5 banks. Then 10.. and then I lost count. The governments have been trying to help, so for now it looks like no more banks are going to fail. Deposits are being guaranteed now, all over the world. So don't fear about your savings and current accounts.
Is my job safe?
No. Even though my bank is partially nationalised, there will definitely be a few rounds of cost cutting measures, which will include job cuts, salary cuts and bonus cuts.
Am I worried?
Past that stage, really. A cut might even be a good thing for me, since I should get a decent severance package and I wont have to suffer in such a bad economy (with low margins and profit) for another year.
Who is to blame?
Yeah believe the press about those scheming greedy bankers who invented these imaginary financial products that nobody understands, then paying themselves a huge paycheck at the expense of innocent consumers.
BUT THATS NOT TRUE.
As I mentioned, a large part of the blame lies with asset bubbles. Especially in China, markets work like this: a stock performs decently. Some smart investors start buying it. As they start buying that stock gains popularity and prominence as a good performer. More people start buying it. And so the stock gains in price. Repeat this for all other stocks in the world, including commodities, like oil. Goldman Sachs analysts predicted oil at 200. People started to believe them, FKING driving up the price of oil. As nearly everyone went bullish on the market, everyone started making money, and there was an excess of cash! And so people started investing more!
Blaming the subprime market, credit default swaps (CDS), or those well paid bankers does prove to be popular, but nobody was complaining when they were making money themselves!
What am I gonna do?
I joke that I'm gonna grow sweet potatoes. After all, that seems like a sensible way to live through even the worst depression. But practically though... I can't, since I don't have a garden. I don't know what else I'm gonna do besides Finance, but lets face it, its never going to be the same game again, not for another five years. No way will I expect fat bonuses anymore. So really, there isn't any more pull factor to remain in finance.
Do I regret working in a bank?
No. Its such a great experience, given the chance I'll do it all over again.
Whats the current crisis?
Markets around the world, US, Europe and Asia, has fallen by roughly 20% over the past week and 40% over the past year. Banks are collapsing or being taken over, there is a squeeze on cash, and no bank is willing to lend to each other or to other corporations. Governments all over have been hastily trying to fix the problem by implementing new, uncoordinated measures, resulting in extremely wide market swings.
Why is it so serious?
Obama probably put it best - companies, big or small, are not able to take new loans, to buy a new factory, hire more people, or even pay existing employees. People will start losing their jobs. Unemployment will go up, while the cost of living will remain the same or higher. There will be a drop in consumer spending, resulting in a contraction in the general economy, which will cause more job cuts and ... a vicious cycle ensues...
Why can't we get out of it?
I used to think we can - if the problem was fixed quick enough. Hank Paulson tried to fix it but it wasn't enough. Once investors lose their confidence in banks and in the markets, and tried to withdraw their deposits/positions, the problem just escalates. There was a joke I read about how markets work - funny but very true:
It was nearing winter and the native americans were preparing for it. They heard the weather forecast that it was going to be a cold winter. So they chopped more wood to prepare for it. The following day, the forecast said it was going to be a very cold winter. So they went out and chopped even more wood. The next day the forecast said it was going to be the coldest winter in history, so they went out and chopped even more wood. One guy called the weather station and asked, "How do you know its going to be such a cold winter?". The answer was, "Look at the insane amounts of wood the native americans are gathering!!"
and so thats it... markets start falling, people start selling. Markets drop further. People sell more.
What about market fundamentals?
There was a time when I believed in that. That finance can be explained by maths. pfft. There is no concept of fundamentals. Look to Volkswagen. They reported that their earnings will be crap. Their future is bleak. The economy is heading towards a recession. Automobile companies are hurt bad. BUT while everything around them is falling 40%, Volkswagen has shot up by 400%. Why? The story is a little long, but just to document it... it was because Porsche had owned 35% of the outstanding shares and had options to buy more with banks - but nobody knew how much and when they had to honor those options. Hedge funds had also shorted their stock. When the time came to cover, they had to buy the stock back. That resulted in a short squeeze (short sellers having to buy stock back while there is little stock to go around) resulting in absolutely crazy stock prices that is NOT supported by either the intrinsic value of the company, nor its expected cash flow.
Are the banks safe now?
Pfft. After Lehman fell, all the big banks got into big trouble. At first it was like 5 banks. Then 10.. and then I lost count. The governments have been trying to help, so for now it looks like no more banks are going to fail. Deposits are being guaranteed now, all over the world. So don't fear about your savings and current accounts.
Is my job safe?
No. Even though my bank is partially nationalised, there will definitely be a few rounds of cost cutting measures, which will include job cuts, salary cuts and bonus cuts.
Am I worried?
Past that stage, really. A cut might even be a good thing for me, since I should get a decent severance package and I wont have to suffer in such a bad economy (with low margins and profit) for another year.
Who is to blame?
Yeah believe the press about those scheming greedy bankers who invented these imaginary financial products that nobody understands, then paying themselves a huge paycheck at the expense of innocent consumers.
BUT THATS NOT TRUE.
As I mentioned, a large part of the blame lies with asset bubbles. Especially in China, markets work like this: a stock performs decently. Some smart investors start buying it. As they start buying that stock gains popularity and prominence as a good performer. More people start buying it. And so the stock gains in price. Repeat this for all other stocks in the world, including commodities, like oil. Goldman Sachs analysts predicted oil at 200. People started to believe them, FKING driving up the price of oil. As nearly everyone went bullish on the market, everyone started making money, and there was an excess of cash! And so people started investing more!
Blaming the subprime market, credit default swaps (CDS), or those well paid bankers does prove to be popular, but nobody was complaining when they were making money themselves!
What am I gonna do?
I joke that I'm gonna grow sweet potatoes. After all, that seems like a sensible way to live through even the worst depression. But practically though... I can't, since I don't have a garden. I don't know what else I'm gonna do besides Finance, but lets face it, its never going to be the same game again, not for another five years. No way will I expect fat bonuses anymore. So really, there isn't any more pull factor to remain in finance.
Do I regret working in a bank?
No. Its such a great experience, given the chance I'll do it all over again.
Sunday, October 12, 2008
HK trip #4
In changi airport right now, decided to take this short opportunity waiting for a flight back to HK to write this entry. someone's been complaining there's nothing new on my blog. surprised they still read it!!
As usual, I met up with my same ol bunch of close friends. A weekend is pretty too short to meet up with everyone I'd like to... but still it was good. It was a bit tiring rushing around but it was good to have a weekend filled with meeting old friends.
Meanwhile L was in the US scouting for a venue for our wedding. hehe...
And a short story I felt quite strongly about. I arrived in SG friday late night (1am Saturday actually), and I wanted to buy a sim card - so I can make and receive calls more easily. I hadn't planned to come back to SG so I didn't bring my IC, my EZlink card, and my sim card. I was told I could get it from the money changer.
W: I'd like to buy a sim card please.
Girl at Counter: Top up card or sim card?
W: Sim card.
G: new number?
W: Yes.
G: Can I see your ID please.
W: (take out passport>)Here you go.
G: Sorry sir, for Singaporeans, I need to see your NRIC.
W: Why? I left my NRIC overseas. Isn't the passport good enough?
G: Sorry sir, its the regulation.
W: So foreigners can use their passports but Singaporeans cannot?
G: Yes sir. For Singaporeans we need to see your NRIC.
W: But my NRIC number is exactly the same as the passport number
G: Yeah I know sir. But we need your NRIC.
W: Why? The passport IS a valid ID, accepted by goverments worldwide. And its not valid here?
G: Sorry sir, its a singtel regulation.
I was on the verge of going balistic. Seriously, do they have to follow the rule to the letter? WHAT, really, could be the reason they refuse to accept my passport as a valid id? In the end, I went to the money changer at the other end of the airport to try my luck again. Again I was told the passport CANNOT be used as a valid ID. I asked if there are any other forms of ID they'll accept. Driver's License, i'm told. Luckily I had it in my wallet. And then I got the simcard.
But really, logically speaking, WTF can't I use my passport? I cannot use my NRIC in anywhere in the world, except Singapore. And I can use my passport EVERYWHERE in the world... BUT Singapore. AND THE DRIVING LICENSE IS MORE VALID THAN THE PASSPORT???
I was dissapointed, to say the least. In Singtel, for having such a ridiculous rule, in the cashier for having such a narrow one track mind, and in Singapore, for I knew only such a ridiculous rule can still be followed unwaveringly here.
Sim Wong Hoo once wrote about the "U Turn" syndrome in Singapore, i.e., you are not allowed to make a U Turn unless there is a U turn sign (in other parts of the world, you are explicitly allowed to U turn unless there is a "No U-Turn" sign). Perhaps Singtel's regulation wasn't that you can't use your passport if you're singaporean.... They just didn't write that you could....
Actually, writing about this I remember another incident. Our PM came back to SG from an overseas visit and noticed a longer queue in the "Singapore Residents Only" lane versus the "All Passports" lane and was confused. Why, he wondered, would that be the case when Singapore passport holders can also choose the "All Passports" lane? Reason being that some Singaporeans won't risk it unless its explicitly written - "All passports including singaporeans" perhaps.
Enough ranting.. i gotta go. maybe next entry i'll talk about the financial meltdown... since people have been asking me about it and also... i feel like this is gonna be a historic moment. 20-30 years later people will remember about this year as the worst financial disaster in history and I'm smack in the middle of it. Perhaps I really should start documenting day by day recounts, and then I can compile a book and sell it - when i get fired :P.
As usual, I met up with my same ol bunch of close friends. A weekend is pretty too short to meet up with everyone I'd like to... but still it was good. It was a bit tiring rushing around but it was good to have a weekend filled with meeting old friends.
Meanwhile L was in the US scouting for a venue for our wedding. hehe...
And a short story I felt quite strongly about. I arrived in SG friday late night (1am Saturday actually), and I wanted to buy a sim card - so I can make and receive calls more easily. I hadn't planned to come back to SG so I didn't bring my IC, my EZlink card, and my sim card. I was told I could get it from the money changer.
W: I'd like to buy a sim card please.
Girl at Counter: Top up card or sim card?
W: Sim card.
G: new number?
W: Yes.
G: Can I see your ID please.
W: (take out passport>)Here you go.
G: Sorry sir, for Singaporeans, I need to see your NRIC.
W: Why? I left my NRIC overseas. Isn't the passport good enough?
G: Sorry sir, its the regulation.
W: So foreigners can use their passports but Singaporeans cannot?
G: Yes sir. For Singaporeans we need to see your NRIC.
W: But my NRIC number is exactly the same as the passport number
G: Yeah I know sir. But we need your NRIC.
W: Why? The passport IS a valid ID, accepted by goverments worldwide. And its not valid here?
G: Sorry sir, its a singtel regulation.
I was on the verge of going balistic. Seriously, do they have to follow the rule to the letter? WHAT, really, could be the reason they refuse to accept my passport as a valid id? In the end, I went to the money changer at the other end of the airport to try my luck again. Again I was told the passport CANNOT be used as a valid ID. I asked if there are any other forms of ID they'll accept. Driver's License, i'm told. Luckily I had it in my wallet. And then I got the simcard.
But really, logically speaking, WTF can't I use my passport? I cannot use my NRIC in anywhere in the world, except Singapore. And I can use my passport EVERYWHERE in the world... BUT Singapore. AND THE DRIVING LICENSE IS MORE VALID THAN THE PASSPORT???
I was dissapointed, to say the least. In Singtel, for having such a ridiculous rule, in the cashier for having such a narrow one track mind, and in Singapore, for I knew only such a ridiculous rule can still be followed unwaveringly here.
Sim Wong Hoo once wrote about the "U Turn" syndrome in Singapore, i.e., you are not allowed to make a U Turn unless there is a U turn sign (in other parts of the world, you are explicitly allowed to U turn unless there is a "No U-Turn" sign). Perhaps Singtel's regulation wasn't that you can't use your passport if you're singaporean.... They just didn't write that you could....
Actually, writing about this I remember another incident. Our PM came back to SG from an overseas visit and noticed a longer queue in the "Singapore Residents Only" lane versus the "All Passports" lane and was confused. Why, he wondered, would that be the case when Singapore passport holders can also choose the "All Passports" lane? Reason being that some Singaporeans won't risk it unless its explicitly written - "All passports including singaporeans" perhaps.
Enough ranting.. i gotta go. maybe next entry i'll talk about the financial meltdown... since people have been asking me about it and also... i feel like this is gonna be a historic moment. 20-30 years later people will remember about this year as the worst financial disaster in history and I'm smack in the middle of it. Perhaps I really should start documenting day by day recounts, and then I can compile a book and sell it - when i get fired :P.
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